摄影：怡萱

在播客《及早离去》中，我引用了朋友 Christopher Tan 的一篇文章。

Chris 是新加坡财富管理公司 Providend 的创始人兼 CEO。我们只见过两次，却仿佛认识很久。

我喜欢这篇文章。

当市场剧烈波动时，投顾大致会有三种反应：

• 自己先被情绪吞没，再把恐慌传递给你；

• 告诉你「大跌就是抄底良机，超额收益在此刻诞生」；

• 借机与你一起厘清投资与生活的关系——投资只是让生活更美好的工具，而不是全部。

2018 年，我认为第二种做法最为关键。

七年过去，我愈发相信第三种更为重要。

征得 Chris 同意，现附上英文原文，以及我借助 DeepSeek 所做的翻译。

愿这篇文章也能带给你片刻启发。

1

"If you are feeling overwhelmed, worried about job security, falling investments or growing debt, this crisis might be your invitation to reset"

Markets  have been extremely volatile due to escalating trade wars – not only between the US and China, but also with more than 60 countries including US traditional allies such as the EU and Japan. In early April, the S&P 500 dropped more than 10 per cent in just two days.

This is not just another correction. It is a geopolitical and economic event we have not seen since the 1930s. Back then, the US introduced the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, triggering a collapse in global trade, and markets plummeted. Today, US tariffs have jumped from an average of 3 per cent to more than 20 per cent with far-reaching consequences.

No one knows how long this will last, but because this is unlike anything we have faced in recent decades, we need to respond with wisdom and not blind optimism.

2

One of my favourite stories from Jim Collins’Good to Great is about Admiral James Stockdale, who survived more than seven years of brutal captivity during the Vietnam War. He endured solitary confinement, torture and hopeless conditions. But what kept him going was a powerful belief. He wrote: “I never lost faith in the end of the story. I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

When Collins asked who did not survive, Stockdale replied: “Oh, that’s easy. The optimists. They were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”

Stockdale went on to write: “This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

Over the past few weeks, many have come out to urge investors to stay the course, to “buy the dips” and to trust that markets always rise in the long run. While those reassurances come from a good place, I fear they may be insufficient. After all, the S&P 500 took 15 years to recover after the crash of the 1930s.

I am not saying history will repeat itself – and I hope it will not – but if I am going to encourage you to stay invested, I must also prepare you for the possibility of prolonged uncertainty. Otherwise, I risk turning you into an “optimist” who ends up disillusioned, bails out halfway and crystallises your losses.

3

If you had invested in the S&P Composite Index (S&P 500 index was introduced in 1957) at the start of 1928 and held for 15 years through the Great Depression, your annualised return would have been just 2 per cent a year – positive, but hardly sufficient for long-term goals.

That is why as a firm, we do not rely on the S&P 500 alone. We diversify globally, and constantly reassess the long-term expected returns of what we invest in. If those returns are expected to be lower in future, we need to adjust our clients’ wealth plans. Staying invested is important – but only when you know what those investments are likely to deliver. Otherwise, you may preserve capital, but not fulfil your life goals.

If you are approaching retirement in the next year or two, it is time to reassess. After a strong decade of returns, your portfolio may already be enough. If so, consider securing the funds you will need for the first five years of retirement now. The blanket advice to “stay invested” does not apply to everyone.

I recall a client during the 2008 global financial crisis who, despite being financially secure, insisted on divesting his portfolio. He could not sleep or eat due to market stress, and it was affecting his health. So we liquidated his holdings. What is the point of staying invested if your well-being is deteriorating? Asking someone to “hold on” without understanding their situation is like telling someone with a heart condition to keep running despite breathlessness. It is irresponsible.

4

To let this crisis pass without a life response would be a wasted opportunity. During the global financial crisis, I had front-row seats to see how the relentless pursuit of returns stripped many of their peace. Some lost everything they had built; a few even lost their lives.

In 2010, in the aftermath of that crisis, I began to declutter my own life. I reflected deeply and gained clarity on my non-negotiable life goals. I moved back to public housing, kept only a small car for family use, and took public transport to work. I redirected my resources to support what truly mattered.

Living simply and spending below my means gave me peace. It freed me to make life and business decisions without being held hostage by money. I may be in a rocking boat in the middle of a storm, but I have rest.

If you are feeling overwhelmed today, worried about job security, falling investments or growing debt, this crisis might be your invitation to reset. Clarify what really matters. Stop buying things you do not need, with money you do not have, to impress people you do not even know or care about. In investing, do not chase after best returns; rather, use an approach that gives you the highest probability of success. Peace is not found in more – it is found in enough.

5

So, while “stay invested” may be popular advice which we give to our clients too – only after understanding their financial situation and life stage – it is not one-size-fits-all advice. Before following it blindly, pause and think again. Do not make investment or financial decisions in isolation. Life decisions must come first. Crises like this are opportunities to realign. Do not waste it because you will never know when the next one will come; when it does, the choices you make now may allow you to sleep soundly, even in a rocking boat.

When we get out of this crisis, I hope you too can echo what Stockdale wrote: “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

6

由于不断升级的贸易战，市场极度动荡——不仅涉及中美，还包括美国与欧盟、日本等 60 多个传统盟友之间的争端。今年 4 月初，标普 500 指数仅两日内暴跌超 10%。这并非普通的市场调整，而是自 1930 年代以来罕见的全球政治经济事件。当时美国通过《斯姆特·霍利关税法案》引发全球贸易崩溃，市场一落千丈。如今美国关税已从平均 3% 跃升至 20% 以上，影响深远。无人知晓这场危机会持续多久，但鉴于这是近几十年来未曾遭遇的局面，我们需要以智慧而非盲目乐观应对。

7

吉姆·柯林斯《从优秀到卓越》中关于海军上将詹姆斯·斯托克代尔的故事令我印象深刻。他在越南战争中被囚禁七年，忍受酷刑与绝境，却因坚定信念而存活。他写道：「我始终相信结局。我从未怀疑自己终将获释，并将这段经历转化为生命的定义性事件——回首时，我绝不后悔。」

当柯林斯问谁未能幸存，斯托克代尔答道：「很简单，乐观主义者。他们总说圣诞节前就能出去，可圣诞来了又去；又说复活节前会自由，复活节也流逝了。最终他们在心碎中死去。」

斯托克代尔总结道：「关键教训在于：必须区分两种态度——坚信最终胜利（这种信念不可丢失），与直面当下残酷现实的纪律性。」

8

过去几周，许多人呼吁投资者「坚守阵地」、「逢低买入」，并相信市场长期总会上涨。这些建议虽出于善意，却可能不足够——须知标普 500 指数在 1930 年代崩盘后花了 15 年才恢复。我并非预言历史重演（也衷心希望不会），但若鼓励您坚持投资，就必须让您为长期不确定性做好准备。否则，您可能沦为中途绝望撤资、坐实亏损的「乐观主义者」。 

若您在 1928 年初投资标普综合指数（标普 500 指数 1957 年才推出）并持有 15 年穿越大萧条，年化回报率仅 2%——虽为正收益，却难支撑长期目标。因此，我们公司从不单独依赖标普 500，而是全球分散投资，持续评估资产长期预期回报。若未来回报预期降低，就必须调整客户财富计划。 

坚持投资的前提是清楚这些投资的可能回报。否则您或能保本，却无法实现人生目标。若您计划未来一两年退休，现在就该重新评估：经历十年强劲回报后，您的组合或许已足够。若是，建议锁定退休前五年所需资金。

「无差别坚持投资」并不普适。 

忆及 2008 年金融危机时，一位财务无忧的客户因市场压力失眠厌食，坚持清仓。当健康受损时，坚持投资有何意义？不了解个体状况就劝人「坚持」，如同让心脏病患者在喘息中继续奔跑——这是不负责任的。

9

若任危机流逝而不反思，实为浪费良机。

2008 年危机让我亲眼目睹追逐回报如何剥夺人们的安宁：有人失去毕生积蓄，更有人失去生命。

2010 年危机后，我开始精简生活，明确人生不可妥协的目标：搬回组屋，仅留家庭用车，乘公交上班，将资源投向真正重要之事。简朴生活带来平和，使我免受金钱绑架，能在风暴中的摇晃小船里安然休息。 

若您此刻被工作危机、投资缩水或债务压力淹没，这场危机或许是重启人生的契机：

厘清真正重要之事；

停止用借来的钱购买不需要的东西来取悦无关之人。

投资不必追求最高回报，而在于选择成功概率最大的策略。

安宁不在更多，而在足够。 

10

「坚持投资」虽是常见建议（我们在了解客户财务状况与人生阶段后也会给出），但绝非万能答案。

盲目跟从前，请三思：投资决策不可孤立存在，人生抉择须为首位。此类危机是重新校准的机遇——请珍惜，因为下次危机来临时，您此刻的选择或能让您在颠簸中安眠。 

愿我们走出危机时，都能如斯托克代尔所言：「我从未怀疑终将脱困，并将把这段经历转化为生命的定义性事件——回首时，绝不后悔。」

本文所载内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，投资者应独立作出判断。本文所涉基金及/或基金投顾组合相关数据来源于基金销售机构及/或基金投顾机构公开披露信息。有知有行提示您，基金及基金投顾组合的过往业绩不预示其未来表现，为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证。详见《免责声明》。如转载引用，请遵守《转载声明》。